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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (ePub eBook) 6th edition

eBook by Goodwin, Paul/Wright, George

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (ePub eBook)

£43.95

ISBN:
9781394362479
Publication Date:
13 Feb 2026
Edition:
6th edition
Publisher:
Wiley
Pages:
496 pages
Format:
eBook
For delivery:
Download available
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (ePub eBook)

Description

APPLYING DECISION ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT JUDGMENT ACROSS DIVERSE FIELDS Sound decision-making is essential for success in todayOs complex organizational environments. Now in its sixth edition, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment provides students and professionals with the tools and insights needed to make informed, rational choices in the face of uncertainty. Written for managers and students without advanced mathematical training, this leading textbook clearly explains a wide range of decision analysis techniques while addressing the psychological biases and pitfalls that often undermine judgment. Throughout the text, authors Paul Goodwin and George Wright combine behavioral insights with practical analytical tools, bridging the gap between foundational theory and real-world practice. Presenting complex concepts in a clear, accessible style suitable for both students and professionals, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an invaluable resource for anyone tasked with evaluating alternatives, anticipating future scenarios, and balancing multiple objectives in professional contexts. It is ideal for upper-level undergraduate, MBA, and executive education courses in decision analysis, management judgment, strategic planning, and environmental planning. NEW TO THIS EDITION: O Introduces the role of artificial intelligence in decision-making, highlighting benefits, limitations, and future potential O Provides a step-by-step guide to applying the Intuitive Logics method of scenario planning O Demonstrates a streamlined approach for integrating scenario planning with multi-attribute decision analysis O New practical examples illustrating successful applications of decision analysis and scenario planning O Includes the latest psychological research on multi-attribute decision-making and behavioral OnudgesO O Incorporates the SPIES method for estimating probability distributions and expands coverage of the Delphi method with recommendations for robust implementation O Adds CookeOs Classical Method for aggregating expert probability judgments and discusses the success of superforecasters WILEY ADVANTAGE: O Provides a reader-friendly introduction to decision analysis without requiring advanced mathematical knowledge O Integrates behavioral insights to address psychological biases that can undermine managerial judgment O Covers a wide range of qualitative and quantitative decision analysis techniques applicable to real-world problems O Applies concepts to diverse contexts, including business, public administration, and environmental planning O Encourages active learning through end-of-chapter exercises that reinforce understanding and critical thinking O Supports flexible teaching approaches with a companion website containing additional exercises, case studies, quizzes, and simulations

Contents

Foreword to First Edition ix Preface xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15 Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 37 Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 71 Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 101 Chapter 6 Decision-making under risk 123 Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 165 Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 193 Chapter 9 Revising judgments in light of new information 227 Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 251 Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 281 Chapter 12 Structured risk management 303 Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 315 Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 347 Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 369 Chapter 16 Scenario planning: a way of dealing with uncertainty 395 Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 431 Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and the role of AI 445 Suggested answers to selected questions 469 Index 475

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